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Both the Russell and the 1 Rutherford families came from Scotland as well as MacMillan and many other key eariy Watchtower leaders erectile dysfunction fpnotebook purchase stendra 100mg on line. From this it appears that the Scottish type of Illuminatism that created the early Watchtower Society has always practiced Enochian magic erectile dysfunction circumcision buy cheap stendra on line. Remember from the Be Wise As Serpents book that knowing the Watchtowers is the key to erectile dysfunction dr. hornsby stendra 50 mg for sale Enochian magic erectile dysfunction doctor in columbus ohio buy generic stendra 100mg. Walt family Woomer family the areas which have been identified as strong Satanic stronghold within the Watchtower religious empire are: Southern California (cap best erectile dysfunction vacuum pump buy 200 mg stendra mastercard. San Bernadino Valley), Florida, the Carribean, Scotland, Bethel Headquarters in Brooklyn, and various places in New York. This ritual is actually the ancient gnostic (satanic) ritual of saying no to the body of Christ. This ancient satanic ritual is now secretly practiced under the disguise of the Memorial Supper where the elements of 2 communion are passed and no one partakes of the elements. The actual figures of how many partake of the elements is a totally fictitious figure according to my sources, which is created at Bethel headquarters in Brooklyn. This newsletter will continue to bring articles on the various branches of Satan’s One World Religion which includes the Mormon authority structure, the Catholic authority structure, the Pentecostal and the Jehovah’s Witnesses authority structures just to name a few. One of the strangest things for this Author was to continue running into evidence that seems to indicate Charles Taze Russell, the man who started the Jehovah’s Witnesses’ Watchtower Society, was secretly an important Satanist. Lest the reader devalue the evidence, permit this author to state that the evidence came in first before I came up with my theory that Russell was an important Satanist, and not vice-versa. Russell was definitely a Mason, yet he puts up some great smokescreens in his writing concerning his membership. Russell’s Bethel staff became concerned about his occultic activities and required him to take an oath forswearing any further occultic activities. These 35 are not in any way inclusive, Russell had many other identical ideas to what the Masonic lodges propogate. First, it facilitates the disposal of human sacrifices which are buried in pieces below the fresh holes dug for someone else’s burial. When the casket is placed in the hole, it would be rare for anyone to dig below the casket level ever again. The spiritual power of the dead is pulled up by making a circle of light over them then within the circle a naked Satanist lays. This implies that at some point the Society began cooperating with the New World Order. Russell began participating in this secrecy when he took the Entered Apprentice (first Masonic degree) oath on penalty of mayhem and violent death, "I. Should the reader allow, I will quote from the Power’s own statements plus other proof to show that this god, the god of the world, is Lucifer (aka Satan, Sanat, Venus, etc. Spaced every 28 is a Feast of the Beast, a year-long holiday during which Satanists receive new instructions from Satan on how to carry out the Plan. I have, in past instructions, referred to the great meetings held at intervals by Those to Whom is entrusted the spiritual guidance of the planet and particularly of man. It is a very ingenious scheme to enslave the American people, and destroy all their civil rights. The first rumblings of the Drug War part of the Plan seem to stir from the occult, so it is highly possible the Drug War originally was first developed by Satanists, perhaps even given during one of the Feasts of the Beast. The Power would make billions of dollars by running drugs, to further finance other nefarious schemes, and could use their world-wide power to crush all their competitors. When the Power crushed and arrested their competitors in drug running, they would be hailed as heros by the majority of people. It gets the public indignent about drugs, and the public’s moral outcry allows the Power to pass "drug" laws that remove the last vestiges of legal civil rights. In fact, the beguiled public demands the laws which abolish their rights, and applauds these laws in ignorance unknowing what the laws actually say and mean. If the public somehow gets a complete picture that their government has been smuggling drugs to create a drug war in spite of the controlled media, or perhaps through the media at the right time, then they can create a scandal involving several U. One item that has popped up consistently is that people with the surname Russell repeatedly appear as important figures in the various elements of the World Order as it has developed. Before becoming aware of the One World Order, this Author had no inkling how important blood lines have been for the elite that controls the world. Friendships have also played a role, for instance, Eleanor Roosevelt (who was involved in numerous communist organizations’ and was an actual card carrying member of the American communist party) was a close friend and confidant to Ronald Reagon’s mother. This seems trivial, but the reoccurance of blood lines and the reoccurant discovery of connections of friendships between what have been thought of as unrelated personages, compels one to believe the elite is more compact than appears. When the Potato famine hit during the 1820s, the Russells did not have the roots to Ireland that the original Irish had, and the rest of the family moved to America, except for Fannie’s husband Alexander Harper, who stayed behind in Donegal estranged from his wife. The family tree looked like this: (Picture missing) Let’s comment about the type of Russells that keep appearing throughout the course of the history of the New World Order as this author went about his research. To summarize, these various Russells (who until the genealogy work is done to show the connections should be viewed as individuals - not a group) have been prominent members of the Illuminati, the Masons, the Fabians, the Mormons, the Jehovah’s Witnesses, the Jesuits, the Royal Society, and the Media controlled by those of the New World Order, and a deputy chairman of the Federal Reserve. Typically they have been merchants and lawyers, with a fair share of them also as Christian heretics. It will be easier perhaps to illustrate how the Russells keep popping up in the New World Order story line by listing a good sampling of them. His mother was the one chosen to dance with famous Mason and Illuminatus Lafayette when he was in Philadelphia. Russell Mason and part owner of the Pony Express, which was a firm made up mainly of Masons. He was a good friend of Golden Dawn leader William Butler Yeats who wrote some of the Satanic Masonic Rituals for the Golden Dawn. Russell Governor of Nevada, 1950-58, and 32 Mason, also in the York Rite, and a Shriner. Russell (1854-1925) Mason, organist for South Park Presbyterian Church, Newark, N. He joined the English equivalent of the Knights of Malta that is the Order of St. John of Jerusalem, and served as the Grand Master of the lodge formed at the Bank of England!. He was appointed head of the Indian Masons of Madras, India (home of the Theosophical Society). Russell, Columbia University professor who introduced Wundt’s Hegelian philosophy to his students at Columbia. Jerome Russell a Greyfriar, burned in 1539 for heresy with John Kennedy in Glasgow, Scot. William Howard Russell first war correspondent for London’s the Times newspaper in 1854. The London Times has long been part of the World Order, that William was the first of his kind is quite significant. Political Parties: A Sociological Study of the Oligarchical Tendencies of Modern Democracy. This Author has colloborated the connection of the Mormon leadership to the Satanic bloodlines and the Priere de Sion through several independent sources. One descendent of Joseph Smith who took part in Satanic rituals has been willing to tell about the family’s occult history. A Christian who was once part of the Satanic hierarchy who ran verbal instructions to the Mormon First Presidency from the Council of 13 colloborates their connections. The historical roots, even those that the Mormon leaders themselves have printed, expose the genealogical ties to some of the most powerful occult bloodlines. One of the few books even willing to touch the subject in a scholarly biblical manner is Crawford, Jarah B. Although I don’t concur with all of Crawford’s conclusions, the book shows more than enough evidence to support the point superscripted. I have chosen to place some of the documentation much further back, but will state 7 that several researchers give seminars exposing it in detail. The Vietnam War was an important part of the scheme and since then some of the recent important laws passed to implement this contrived war are P. Marilyn Ferguson, New Age writer, states in her famous book the Aguarian Conspiracy, p. But chemical satori is perishable, its effects too overwhelming to integrate into everyday life. Non-drug psychotechnologies offer a controlled, sustained movement toward that spacious reality. Victims of Satanism have disclosed information about some of the extent of Satanism within the rank and file Jehovah’s Witnesses, and hierarchy. When it became obvious that the art department of the Watchtower Society has been hiding Satanic symbols in the pictures of Watchtower publications for many years the Governing Body chose to cover it up rather than stop it. Proceedings of the Ninetieth Annual Conclave held in the City of Harrisburg, Dauphin County. The Social Mirror A Character Sketch of the Women of Pittsburgh and Vicinity during the first Century of the County’s existence. The English tried to settle Protestants from Scotland in Ireland in order to control the Irish. When the opportunity opened up to go to the Emerald Island (Ireland) with the Scottish settlers who went to the plantation Ulster they went. It is possible, but not known for sure that they learned to know the Rutherfords either in Scotland or Ireland. Scotland repeatedly appears as the source of much of the religious heresy connected with the Power. Russell’s family were in Scotland for a period, and also from the German states which seem to be a hot bed for Jewish Satanism may be only a coincidence and then again it might be a clue to understanding the origin of the Watchtower Society. This Author’s previous book the Watchtower and the Masons tells the story how the Arian heresy began at the University of Edinburgh, Scotland and spread to the the Presbyterians of the Synod of Ulster. Charles and his father married two Ackley sisters a number of years after Charles’ mother died. It turns out that a man named William Ackley had purchased the land in that area, and had sold it in large part to Scot-Irish settlers of the Presbyterian faith as they were coming to America. Russell’s mother died a town named Ackley had been staked out in 1857, but the Civil War had interferred with construction plans. A Presbyterian congregation had been formed in the area during the early 1860s in the Ackley area, which indicates some settlers had arrived. Interestingly, in the 19th century she believed a socialist revolution was coming. She wrote, "This great revolution has not yet come, but where is the statesman or the intelligent citizen that does not see it coming. William Ackley, the land speculator/seller in Iowa, traces his ancestry back to Prence Doane and Elizabeth Godfrey.

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Because nodding and shaking should not systematically influence the selective accessibility of anchor-consistent information erectile dysfunction facts and figures discount 50mg stendra fast delivery, we predicted these head movements would not influence answers to erectile dysfunction doctor in bangalore discount stendra 200mg otc externally provided anchoring questions impotence natural food purchase cheap stendra on line. Method Participants (n = 50) were told that the experiment was a study of product evaluations erectile dysfunction treatment viagra order 100 mg stendra with mastercard, and that they would be asked to erectile dysfunction treatment photos buy 100 mg stendra overnight delivery evaluate a set of headphones while moving their heads from side to side or up and down in order to assess the headphones under everyday use. To justify this procedure and reduce suspicion, the experimenter explained that she wished to examine “implicit evaluations” that people “form without conscious intention or effort. Depending on a random schedule, participants were then asked to nod their heads up and down, shake their heads from side to side, or hold their heads still. The experimenter, who was unaware of our hypotheses, provided brief demonstrations of the desired head movement, situated herself behind the participant, readied a stopwatch, and began the tape. The experimenter recorded the answer to each question as well as the time required to generate each answer. In order to maintain the cover story, the experimenter stopped the tape after each block and asked participants to evaluate the headphones. The last block contained four anchoring questions taken from Jacowitz and Kahneman (1995). Participants repeated the head movement made during Block 1, and the experimenter recorded both their answers and reaction times to the comparative and absolute components of each question. Because we were interested in adjustment and not anchoring effects per se, we did not manipulate the experimental anchor for each question. We selected the four items that produced the largest anchoring effects in the study by Jacowitz and Kahneman (1995), and provided high anchor values for two questions and low anchor values for two others. Following this procedure, participants completed a questionnaire that asked directly about the intended anchor value for each self-generated anchoring item. Results and Discussion Two preconditions had to be met for an adequate test of our hypotheses about self generated anchors. Participants who did not meet these preconditions were excluded on an item-by-item basis. On three questions, fewer than 30% of participants met both preconditions, generally because they did not know the intended anchor value. In some cases this left no participants in one or more of the experimental conditions. We therefore dropped from the analyses three questions (about the fastest mile, death of the first apostle, and orbit of Io). This left nine self-generated anchoring questions (three in the first block, four in the second, and two in the third). To determine whether head movements influenced participants’ responses, answers to each question were converted to standard scores and then averaged across all items within each block. Reaction times were logarithmically transformed to reduce skew, then standardized and averaged in the same fashion. Answers to the four items that required downward adjustment were reverse scored so that, like the other questions, higher scores on this index reflected a larger discrepancy between the anchor and final answer. A follow-up contrast showed that participants provided answers closer to the self-generated anchor. Participants gave responses in between those in these two conditions when they were holding their heads still. Mean Standardized Answers and Reaction Times to the Self-Generated and Experimenter-Provided Anchoring Items Given While Participants Were Nodding, Shaking, or Holding Their Heads Still (Study 2) Table 7. Mean Responses to Self-Generated Anchoring Items Given While Participants Were Nodding, Shaking, or Holding Their Heads Still (Study 2) a the data presented for this item are adjustment scores, or the absolute difference between the participant’s answer and their reported anchor. This was done because adjustment was common in both directions from the self-generated anchor on this item. Lower numbers indicate a smaller discrepancy between the final answer and the original anchor. Participants’ head movements also influenced the speed with which they generated their answers to the self-generated anchoring items, F (2, 84) = 5. As predicted, participants answered more quickly when nodding than when shaking their heads, F (1, 42) = 11. Again, the latency of participants’ responses fell in between those in these two conditions when they were holding their heads still. We contend that participants adjust in a serial fashion from self-generated anchors and that head movements influenced their responses by altering their willingness to accept values that came initially to mind. Participants were more willing to accept values that initially came to mind while nodding their heads, producing less adjustment and faster reaction times than when they were shaking them. This mechanism differs considerably from the selective accessibility model that appears to explain anchoring effects in response to experimenter-provided anchors, suggesting that different psychological processes may be operating in these two contexts. We thus conducted a close replication with two changes: (1) we used equal numbers of self-generated and experimenter-provided anchoring items, and (2) we counterbalanced the order in which these items were presented. These changes permitted us to conduct a direct statistical test of the differential effect of head movements on self-generated versus experimenter-provided anchors. Method Thirty-two Cornell students participated in a procedure identical to that of Study 2, except that only 8 questions were used instead of 16 and there was no control (“no head movement”) condition. Of the 8 questions, 4 were self-generated anchoring questions from Study 2, and 4 were experimenter-provided anchoring questions from Jacowitz and Kahneman (1995) – two holdovers from Study 2 and two new items. The four items within each anchor type were split into pairs, producing two self-generated pairs and two experimenter-provided pairs. Participants answered one pair of each item type while nodding their head, and the other while shaking it. The order in which questions were presented was counterbalanced and did not influence any of the results. After each pair, participants evaluated the headphones as part of the cover story. As in Study 2, participants completed a questionnaire at the end of the session to ascertain their knowledge of the self generated anchors, and whether they had considered the anchor when making their estimate. Results and Discussion Individual responses were excluded and data transformed in the same manner as in Study 2. Two participants failed to satisfy the inclusion criteria on at least one item type, leaving 30 participants in the final analysis. To test our predictions, participants’ responses to each item were standardized and averaged across item type. This analysis yielded a marginally significant main effect of head movement, F (1, 29) = 3. Mean Standardized Answers and Reaction Times to Both Self-Generated and Experimenter-Provided Anchors Given While Participants Were Nodding or Shaking Their Heads (Study 3) Table 7. Answers to Self-Generated Anchoring Items Given While Participants Were Nodding or Shaking Their Heads (Study 3) In contrast to the results for the self-generated items, head movements did not influence responses to the experimenter-provided items, paired t<1, ns. A similar, although considerably weaker pattern emerged in an analysis of participants’ response latencies. Head movements had no influence on reaction times to experimenter-provided anchors, paired t < 1. The overall interaction between the type of question and the total amount of time required to generate an answer, however, was nonsignificant, F (1, 29) <1. These data replicate those of Study 2 and demonstrate more conclusively that self generated anchors activate a different set of mental operations than experimenter-provided anchors. Head movements influenced responses when anchors were self-generated but not when they were provided by the experimenter. When questions activate self-generated anchors, people adjust from those anchors to arrive at final estimates. This process differs considerably from those involved when anchors are provided by an experimenter or other external source, demonstrating that there are distinct anchoring effects produced by different mechanisms. We therefore second Jacowitz and Kahneman’s (1995) call for a careful taxonomy of the varieties of anchoring effects in order to advance psychologists’ understanding of this pervasive element of judgment under uncertainty. The present experiments have identified the anchor’s source as one important feature of that taxonomy – a feature that allows us to distinguish those anchoring effects that are produced by a process of adjustment and those that are not. It is noteworthy in this regard that the numeric estimates we investigate here share this feature with a number of phenomena that have been explained through a process of anchoring and adjustment – phenomena such as trait inference (Gilbert, Chapter 9, this volume), interpersonal communication (Keysar & Barr, Chapter 8, this volume), comparative ability estimates (Kruger, 1999), and various egocentric biases (Gilovich et al. Trait inferences begin with a dispositional attribution that observers generate themselves; similarly, communication, comparative ability estimates, and the processes involved in a host of egocentric judgments begin with a spontaneous consideration of one’s own comprehension, skills, or perspective on the world. Final judgments in these cases are thus likely the product of insufficient adjustment from these self-generated anchors. Note that many of these phenomena are amplified by cognitive load manipulations designed to hinder any underlying process of adjustment (Gilbert, Chapter 9, this volume; Kruger, 1999) – manipulations that have no effect on responses in the standard anchoring paradigm (Epley & Gilovich, 2001a). Research on trait inference suggests that although people try to adjust their impressions to accommodate situational influences, they adjust too little and are left inferring more about a person’s disposition than is logically warranted (Gilbert, Chapter 9, this volume). Research on comparative ability estimates paints a similar picture: Although people try to adjust for others’ ability level, they adjust too little and are left feeling systematically above average in domains in which absolute skill tends to be high, such as driving, and below average in domains in which it tends to be low, such as juggling (Kruger, 1999). Results from the control condition of Study 2 suggest that adjustments in numeric estimates also tend to be insufficient. Participants in that experiment estimated that George Washington, for example, was elected president in 1779 when he was actually elected in 1788. Indeed, we report elsewhere that people tend to systematically fall short of the actual answer when adjusting from self-generated anchors (Epley & Gilovich, 2001b). This research provides the first compelling evidence that anchoring effects can be produced by a process of adjustment. Although the adjustment process is anything but fully understood, its existence now seems apparent. Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They “Should”* Boaz Keysar and Dale J. When Hoover noticed that the text of a memo his secretary typed had spilled into the page margins, he scribbled a note to her: “Watch the borders. The question we’d like to address in this paper is this: Why did Hoover miscommunicate. We attempt to demonstrate our point by noting the similarities between the way people make decisions and the way they use language. When we attempt to understand what speakers mean, we must infer what they mean from what they say. In fact, everything people say is ambiguous because it can convey more than one intention. To overcome this inherent ambiguity, we propose that language users rely on certain heuristics of language use. As with other heuristics, they are generally successful but they occasionally lead to systematic error. In this chapter, we propose that speakers, addressees, and overhearers reduce the uncertainty of linguistic utterances by using an anchoring and adjustment heuristic. We review evidence that language users tend to anchor on their own perspective and attempt to adjust to the perspective of others. These adjustments are typically insufficient, and can occasionally cause miscommunication. It assumes that people adhere to certain normative rules of conversation to avoid misunderstanding. Grice (1975) argued that language users follow these rules and assume that others do too because conversation is governed by a “cooperative principle. Thus, cooperative speakers should design utterances bearing in mind the other’s thoughts, beliefs, assumptions, and so on.

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There is a good deal of site specific variation with some sites such as Leigh-on-Sea markedly warmer than others coke causes erectile dysfunction discount 50mg stendra mastercard, yet all sites in the last decade show a significant incidence of High Recruitment Potential especially in the Essex / Kent areas erectile dysfunction under 30 purchase stendra 50mg mastercard. Indeed although Spurn Point temperatures should be sufficient to erectile dysfunction in diabetes medscape purchase stendra without prescription allow spawning on some years impotence tcm purchase 200mg stendra, data from Redcar and Scarborough have yielded no years with conditioning and spawning potential impotence yeast infection purchase stendra pills in toronto. Only one registered shellfish bed at Holy Island operates in this area with Pacific oysters. Table 16 provides a summary of the temperature ranges of the sea loughs within the region which support oyster culture. For example, Lowestoft o has a temperature range from 4 to 18 C which is of a similar scale to Northern Irish loughs. The occurrence of ‘High Recruitment Potential’ events for all selected sites have been calculated and presented for the 1966 to 2004 data period in Figure 18. This overview provides a summary visual indication of High Recruitment Potential years and regional zones. It is clear from Figure 18 that 1989 demarks a change in high recruitment potential. In consequence, the data that have been analysed in Table 17 below highlight the stark increase in high recruitment potential since 1989. Regional pattern of high recruitment potential for 1966 to 1988 and 1989 to 2004 H. Wales & Bristol Channel Skomer 0% 0% 5 Angle 0% 0% 6 Swansea 8% 73% 7 Barry 20% 44% 8 Minehead 6% 44% 9 Ilfracombe 0% 0% 10 S. England Bournemouth 14% 69% 14 Shoreham 39% 90% 15 Eastbourne 8% 69% 16 Dover 0% 25% 17 S. England Leigh-on-Sea 43% 93% 18 South Wold 5% 69% 19 Lowestoft 24% 75% 20 Cromer 3% 38% 21 Brancaster 10% 75% 22 N. England Spurn Head 0% 0% 23 Scarborough 0% 0% 24 Redcar 0% 0% the ‘High Recruitment Potential’ data have been used to provide a time series of percentage incidence across all sites, which is presented in Figure 18. This plot clearly shows that certain years such as 1976 and 1989 stand out as exceptionally warm years nationally. Time series of percentage incidence of High Recruitment Potential across all regions 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year the top 10 High Recruitment Potential years which would have provided the greatest national settlement potential have been ranked and presented in Table 18 below. It is notable that 6 out of the top 10 high recruitment years have occurred in the last 10 years of available data (1995 to 2004). Top 10 Highest Recruitment Potential years with respect to the Pacific oyster High Recruitment Potential Rank Year % Incidence for all Sites (Note 1) 1 1976 65% 2 1989 62% 3 2003 56% 4 1990 53% 5 1995 45% 6 1999 44% 7 2004 44% 8 1982 41% 9 1997 40% 10 2000 36% Note 1: High Recruitment Potential as defined in Section 2. The average summer rise between 1966 to 1988 and o o 1989 to 2004 varies between 0. Weymouth 30 26 22 26 5 Dover 38 34 28 42 26 9 Leigh-on-Sea 35 37 28 54 18 14 Brancaster 56 47 53 66 35 36 Scarborough 36 26 30 28 26 16 Port Erin 20 12 14 21 18 14 Moelfre (Anglesey) 29 17 27 34 24 18 Recent Additional Cumulative Annual Degree Days Area May June Jul. Weymouth 30 56 77 104 109 109 Dover 38 72 100 142 168 177 Leigh-on-Sea 35 72 100 154 172 186 Brancaster 56 102 155 222 256 292 Scarborough 36 62 93 120 146 162 Port Erin 20 32 46 67 85 99 Moelfre (Anglesey) 29 45 72 106 130 148 Table 19 above shows that additional cumulative summer degree days range from around 100 in the West and South West of England and Wales, to 150 to 200 degree days for much of the South of England and North East English coast, whilst some South East of England areas have experienced a massive rise of nearly 300 degree days. When superimposed on the regional pattern of potential recruitment considered in Section 2. In common with historical data sets, determinations for inshore waters in the vicinity of Pacific oyster culture areas are problematic as individual sites will receive a ‘blend’ of marine and terrestrial influences. Table 20 shows that there is a high level of variation both on a regional basis and according to the level of marine influence. In essence it would appear as though the largest increases will occur for South East England and for those sites with greater terrestrial influence. Overview of marine and terrestrial climate change predictions Warming Rate Predicted Extra Degree days/ yr o Area Prediction (C/10yr) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Low 0. Figures 20 to 25 illustrate that by 2050 even current ‘low risk’ regions in the North East and North West of England are likely to be theoretically capable of supporting Pacific oyster settlement. Furthermore, it should be noted that these illustrations display the underlying trends and do not show the inherent inter-annual scatter. In consequence, episodic Pacific oyster spatfalls are likely to occur long before the graphic indication of attaining the ‘recruitment potential. Once data sets have been obtained indicative predictions can also be applied using the rates provided in Table 20. In view of the level of uncertainty between the differing levels of predictions this study has o used the ‘high’ Southern North Sea prediction of 0. This means that the calculations should be generally conservative for offshore settings. However, it is probable that areas subject to a high level of land influence could be subject to even larger temperature rises. Conversely, a Pacific oyster farm operating in deep water off the West coast of Scotland will receive global o warming rates much closer to the Rockall predictions of 0. Another source of regional variations is the seasonality of any warming predictions. However, Table 19 shows that much of the historical warming has been ‘front end loaded’ to the early summer which will greatly enhance the potential for spawning and recruitment. For example, many northern regions only exceed the biological zero temperature for 5 months/year, whilst for some of the southern regions this may be 7 months/yr. In consequence, there may be scope to adjust down the risk for northern regions and increase the risk factor for southern regions. It should be stressed that whilst predictions are a necessary tool in trying to assess future risk they offer no guarantees. Other confounding factors could occur that will shift both the rate and the pattern of climate change. The North Atlantic Conveyor is the oceanographic process than drives the Gulf Stream which is the major ocean/atmosphere heat transfer process that warms the British Isles in the winter and cools it in the summer. Although the level of confidence on this prediction is low the implications for this change would strongly influence the potential risk posed by Pacific oyster settlement. It is concluded therefore that the overview predictions provided in this study provide an indicative illustration of the potential impact upon degree days and Pacific oyster settlement. Couzens (2006b) working on the Pacific oyster spatfall in the Yealm suggested a link between the increased settlement potential and climate change, o “since 1990 there has been a 1 C increase in sea surface temperature in the Western English Channel off Plymouth (Mieszkowska et al. Inshore temperatures in the vicinity of oyster culture operations are strongly site specific and likely to be warmer than those obtained in deeper water measurement locations. As inshore temperatures are strongly influenced by terrestrial conditions a good indication of the variability in summer and winter maxima and minima can be seen from Figure 26 below. Notable are the extreme freeze of 1963 and the hot summers of 1976, 1983, 1989 and 1993. These episodic events are thought to correspond to warmer inshore waters and increased spawning potential. In practice, all the data sets have their limitations with either data gaps, poor resolution or limited duration. However, the use of multiple sources does allow some appreciation of the variations which help with data interpretation. Measurement occasions o with >1 C difference between near-surface and 10m depth occurred from June to August suggesting a greater potential for thermal near surface stratification in the summer. It is concluded that both of these data sources are subject to limitations to their accuracy to represent inshore waters adjacent to oyster culture areas. Data were provided from 1999 to the present from two measurement points at ‘Thorne’ and ‘Foxcove’ as depicted in Figure 27. Data from this o source showed that summer temperatures regularly exceed 18 C and periodically exceed o o 20 C with a maximum reading of 23. Table 22 overleaf presents a summary of the temperature regime data and calculated degree days. Temperature regime and Pacific oyster conditioning potential – Upper Yealm (Source: Plymouth City Council Environmental Health) o Mean Temperature (C) Year Mar Apr May Jun. In this case only 2003 would have yielded sufficient degree days to provide a High Recruitment Potential – this would fit site observations of a significant spatfall observed around 4 years ago. Unfortunately, a direct normalisation is not possible as the Environmental Monitoring and the International Paint data sets do not overlap in their measurement periods. Even with a ‘normalisation’ allowance for a tidal bias to the measured temperature regime, the data would suggest a higher incidence of recruitment than appears to be occurring. It is a possibility that the nutritional regime in the Yealm estuary is not optimal therefore retarding larval development beyond the hatchery derived 825 degree day threshold. In consequence the temperature derived High Recruitment Potential may provide a useful tool for a conservative assessment of risk. Three points were monitored at different sites within o the estuary which rarely showed more than a 1 C separation between sites. These sites have received comprehensive monitoring of temperature, salinity and weather since 1930 on a daily basis with near surface and depth monitoring on a weekly basis. Unfortunately, the data collection stopped in 1990 and the resolution of collection was reduced in the latter years that are of interest to the current study. As data are only available on paper records a limited period was transcribed for this study to assess inter-comparability with other data sources. The years 1988-1989 were selected for analysis as 1989 was a known ‘hot’ year (see Table 23). Elevated air temperatures in 1989 o (up to 30 C) were associated with increased water temperatures in July/August with a peak o o water temperature of 21 C and an average of 19 C in July as opposed to an average of 16 o to 17 C the previous year. However, this early summer rise in 1989 was not reflected in the degree days which were not greatly different from the previous year (which had been warmer in the autumn). Degree day calculations from these monitoring points indicate conditioning and spawning had probably occurred but that the recruitment potential was low. In both years assessments of degree day suggest that the 825 degree day recruitment threshold was reached but not until October when temperatures were already dropping o below 15 C reducing the potential for settlement. Maxima of around 830 and 880 for the Lower Yealm compared with ~630 and 970 degree days obtained from Plymouth Sound for 1988 and 1989 respectively. In explanation it should be noted that the Lower Yealm exhibited a marked daily variation o between maximum and minimum temperature of 3 to 4 C. For the purposes of this study these temperatures were averaged to provide an overall mean. In reality it is likely that peak temperatures in any one year within the estuary will be influenced by both freshwater run off, air temperatures and solar heating in addition to the underlying change in offshore temperatures. Without higher resolution data it is impossible to know whether these maxima temperatures may have been short term events and as such unrepresentative of the temperatures that would have been experienced throughout most of the tide. It is concluded that accurate representative degree day assessments can only be obtained using a high resolution data set for estuarine settings such as the Yealm. Temperature regime and Pacific oyster conditioning potential – Lower Yealm (Source: International Paints) Mean Monthly Temperatures Site Year May June Jul. It is strongly recommended that the findings of this study are monitored closely and that this measurement approach be adopted for monitoring inshore waters representative of oyster culture. The use of miniloggers adjacent to Pacific oyster culture areas provides a reliable, cost effective monitoring tool. Cornwall Sea Fisheries successfully used this technology to simultaneously monitor five offshore sites for 18 months using a duty/standby system of x2 loggers per site whereby local fishermen periodically swapped over the loggers and sent them through the post for central processing (FitzGerald, 2003). Eno calculated that insufficient degree days had been attained to allow recruitment for the year of study with 813 and 732 degree days received for the Dart and Teign respectively.

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On the other hand erectile dysfunction medicine order stendra without a prescription, however erectile dysfunction how common discount stendra 100 mg visa, the practice of culturing oysters directly on the seabed could result in the uncontrolled expansion of naturalised populations of C erectile dysfunction lotion cheap 200mg stendra with visa. These risks include erectile dysfunction drugs covered by insurance order 100 mg stendra otc, inter alia erectile dysfunction pump walgreens buy stendra pills in toronto, competitive exclusion of populations of the Native oyster (Ostrea edulis), the risk of introduction of alien or nuisance species on seed oysters and the alteration of benthic communities by the addition of oysters that may influence the trophic status and structural complexity of the area. To be effective any such future work should target both oysters in wild populations and those held in differing culture conditions. The primary aim was to establish whether industry was experiencing any wild settlement of Pacific oysters in their local area and if so whether this was then being used commercially. The change in level of detail requested from industry has meant that it has not been possible to make any proper judgements about the relative influence that farm type or stocking regime may play with respect to levels of wild settlement. Investigations as part of this project have however established that the Irish Marine Institute is currently about to undertake a three year study looking at these aspects of wild settlement of Pacific oysters (see Section 3. The Irish Shellfish Association’s response was that there was no firm proof that this culture method encouraged wild settlement and so the Marine Institute agreed to withdraw their objections on this basis. This aspect of farm type and stocking density with respect to wild settlement of Pacific oysters is therefore one aspect of the study that the Marine Institute is undertaking as part of their research. This gave excellent coverage of the industry but meant that due to Data Protection issues the project team were not able to review the list of farms to which the questionnaire had been sent. This obviously meant that it was also not possible to follow up on responses other than to those who replied to the questionnaire and indicated that they were happy to discuss further. In order to cover the Pacific oyster producers in that region the Aquaculture Initiative were contacted to see if they could help in this respect. The Aquaculture Initiative agreed to undertake this role on behalf of the project and subsequently contacted all Northern Irish producers on their records. They then subsequently collated and returned the completed questionnaires to the project team. Once the questionnaire responses had been analysed each respondent was then contacted for a more detailed discussion of the answers that they had supplied. These questions included establishing more details about their type of culture operations, experiences with triploid oysters, previous work regarding temperature monitoring, willingness to participate in further research and general industry feedback on this subject area. Where these responses are available details of culture type are included in the Results Section 3. Where utilisation of wild seed was undertaken by industry this was assumed to be diploid in origin. Of the 100 questionnaires that were sent out 27 replies were received for England and Wales together with two written replies covering the broader issues surrounding the questionnaire. Of these replies 21 actual questionnaire responses, covering 27 farm sites, were deemed suitable for further analysis. Of the 27 sites, 9 were located in South West England; 1 in Southern England; 9 in South East England; 5 in Eastern England and 3 in North Wales. The total number of sites analysed therefore for the purposes of this study was 33. The number of sites analysed is therefore stated for each section in order to indicate the level of confidence that can be ascribed to the results. Follow up to the questionnaire showed that most sites (64%) utilised the bag and trestle system of cultivation with approximately a quarter (27%) practising exclusively seabed culture. Only 9% of sites had both bag and trestle and seabed cultivation of Pacific oysters. The majority of farms utilised diploid seed (67%) exclusively although for the purposes of this questionnaire this was also taken to include farms which relied on wild settlement of Pacific oysters. Approximately a fifth (21%) of respondents however already used a combination of diploid and triploid seed in varying proportions. In terms of standing stock of Pacific oysters on farm sites, 24% of sites had 0 to 10 tonnes stock and 27% had between 10 to 20 tonnes standing stock indicating that 51% of all farm sites had less than 20 tonnes standing stock at any one time. Only 12% of sites had between 20 to 40 tonnes of stock and 37% of sites had in excess of 40 tonnes standing stock giving a total of 49% of sites with in excess of 20 tonnes standing stock at any one time. The majority (55%) of farm sites were less than 5 hectares in total size with 24% of sites covering between 5 to 10 hectares. This means that 79% of the farm sites analysed in England, Wales and Northern Ireland were less than 10 hectares in total size. With respect to the larger farms 9% were between 10 to 15 hectares and 12% were considered to be greater than 15 hectares in size. In terms of settlement of Pacific oysters in the local area around the farm sites 55% of respondents reported that no wild settlement had been observed. Of those areas where settlement was in evidence over three-quarters of this settlement (77%) was of individual oysters rather than reefs. These individuals were generally reported to be a mixture of juvenile and adult oysters. Of these monitored areas 60% of respondents reported that they had observed regular settlement. It should be noted that these figures regarding regular settlement relate mainly to the South East of England which is considered in more detail in the Regional analysis. Indeed this was the only region where wild seed was utilised for on-growing or relaying. One final point is that of the questionnaire replies that were received the respondents all indicated that they would be happy to discuss the matter of wild settlement of Pacific oysters in more detail. This is reflected in the type of culture practised which is in proportion to the location of sites with two-thirds based on bag and trestle culture (see Figure 29) and one third on mainly subtidal seabed culture. However 44% of sites used both triploid and diploid seed although the use of triploid seed was generally a new practise. The standing stock of Pacific oysters was spread between the various tonnages at 12% in 0 to 10 tonnes; 22% in 10 to 20 tonnes; 22% in 20 to 40 tonnes and 44% at over 40 tonnes. The majority of farms (67%) were in the 0 to 5 hectare range with one third (33%) in the 5 to 10 hectare range. South West of England intertidal Pacific oyster farm site Farm is situated in an estuary location using bag and trestle culture technique In terms of wild settlement of Pacific oysters 45% of respondents reported no settlement in their local area. Of the remaining sites where settlement was observed this related mainly to individual settlement of both juvenile and adult oysters (44%). All sites where settlement occurred were monitored with the majority of replies (80%) indicating that settlement was irregular. As such there were no reports of any growers utilising wild seed settlement or deploying spat collectors. The site for which information was obtained was however a large subtidal farm of over 15 hectares practising seabed culture with a standing stock of diploid oysters in excess of 40 tonnes. Follow up to the questionnaire showed that these sites were all based around seabed culture of Pacific oysters i. The dominant seed type was diploid at 78% whilst 22% relied exclusively on triploid seed. The standing stock levels of oysters were predominantly over 40 tonnes (45%) whilst 22% of farm sites were in the 0 to 10 tonne range and 33% were of 10 to 20 tonnes standing stock. Most of the farm sites (56%) were in the 0 to 5 hectare size range with 11% each in the 5 to 10 and 10 to 15 hectare size whilst 22% of sites were over 15 hectares. All respondents in the South East had observed wild settlement of Pacific oysters of which the majority were made up of both individual juvenile and adult settlement at 82%. There were also reports of reefs (18%) consisting of both juvenile and adult oysters. The importance of wild settlement and why it is closely monitored becomes obvious when looking at the level of wild seed utilisation. In total 67% of respondents utilised wild settlement for on-growing or relaying and there was one report of a site where spat collectors were actually deployed as a means of collection, an approach used widely in some of the Pacific oyster producing regions in France. This is reflected by the fact that all farm sites were undertaking bag and trestle culture. Of these sites there was a fairly even split between the use of diploid, triploid or both triploid and diploid seed at 40%, 10% and 40% respectively. In terms of standing stock 60% were in the 0 to 10 tonne range and 40% were in the 10 to 20 tonne range i. The majority of these sites (80%) were of 0 to 5 hectares in size whilst 20% were 5 to 10 hectares. None of the respondents had observed any wild settlement of Pacific oysters in their local area. Two of the three sites had 0 to 10 tonnes standing stock with the other site falling in the 10 to 20 tonne standing stock bracket. Of the three sites two were 0 to 5 hectares in size whilst the other was between 5 to 10 hectares. One site was noted as having had juvenile settlement although this was not noted as being a regular occurrence. The majority of sites (80%) were based on the use of the bag and trestle system whilst one site utilised seabed culture where the oysters are placed on plastic matting. Standing stock was generally in the over 20 tonne category with only one site in the 10 to 20 tonne range. Of the larger standing stocks two sites (33%) were reported as holding 20 to 40 tonnes and three sites (50%) held over 40 tonnes of Pacific oysters. Production area was mainly in the 5 to 10 and 10 to 15 hectare range (33% each) with one site each in the 0 to 5 and 15+ hectares range. None of the respondents reported wild settlement of Pacific oysters in their local area on their questionnaire responses. This lack of detail combined with the scale of work required by other tasks within this project has meant that it has been beyond the scope of this short-term study to adequately explore this subject area. The questionnaire responses showed that the Pacific oyster industry in England and Wales is, numerically at least, characterised by small producers. Standing stock levels over all questionnaire responses are split fairly evenly between the ranges with 51% of sites falling within the up to 20 tonne category and 49% in the over 20 tonne range. Where wild settlement did occur the majority of this was made up of individual juvenile and adult oysters. An analysis of the respondents’ data regarding wild settlement shows that settlement only occurs in any significance at present in the South West and South East of England. Of these two regions the South West settlement tends to be only sporadic following very warm summers such as 1990 when settlement occurred for example in the Exe (David Jarrad, pers. The South East by comparison is experiencing regular settlements of wild Pacific oysters to the extent that this has become an integral part of the commercial operations of the growers in that region. When considering the different regions covered by the questionnaire it appears that the findings with respect to the wild settlement of Pacific oysters in England and Wales are very much in accordance with that predicted by the temperature profile analyses contained in Section 2. The final part of the questionnaire requested any other comments that industry may have which together with the detailed follow up interviews yielded more information about industry practises and experiences with respect to Pacific oysters: 3. Other responses highlighted the sporadic nature of wild settlement of Pacific oysters in the South West. For instance on the Camal Estuary where Pacific oyster culture has been undertaken for 25 years there are no signs at present of any wild settlement.

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